Senior U.S. officials reported on Wednesday that recent covert operations and precision strikes have significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear program, delaying their ability to develop nuclear weapons by one or two years.
Intelligence reports shared with congressional leaders and NATO allies indicate that over the past six months, strikes conducted by US forces have targeted critical infrastructure, centrifuge manufacturing facilities and suspected uranium enrichment storage depots deep inside Iran. Although not officially acknowledged by the Pentagon, these operations reportedly involved cyber and kinetic components to ensure maximum effectiveness.
“These operations were intended to disrupt Iran’s most sensitive nuclear advancements without initiating an all-out regional war,” according to a senior U.S. defense official speaking on condition of anonymity with reporters. We now estimate that Iran’s capacity for weapon-grade enrichment has been set back significantly — at least by 12-24 months.”
This news comes at a time of increasing tensions in the Middle East, amid reports that Iran had increased its nuclear enrichment efforts this year and produced near weapon grade-grade uranium purity levels, in violation of 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which President Donald Trump withdrew.
Analysts speculate that recent disclosures show a more aggressive shift by the Biden administration towards Tehran. Analysts speculate that recent disclosures indicate a deliberate deterrence campaign by striking Iranian military installations without inducing open conflict.
Iran has not publicly responded to U.S. allegations against it; however, state media acknowledged a string of explosions and power outages at multiple nuclear-related facilities since March, and Tehran has accused of “foreign sabotage”, though not directly implicating Washington or its allies in these actions.
Western officials believe Israel may have played an indirect or supporting role in these operations, given that Israel views Iran’s nuclear capability as an existential threat. Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency has previously been implicated in operations targeting Iranian scientists, facilities and cyber infrastructure.
Experts caution that Iran’s nuclear ambitions cannot be stopped indefinitely and caution that time is running out to stop their progression.
“This is only a temporary solution,” explained Dr. Laura Kensington, a nonproliferation expert from Brookings Institution. It gives negotiators more time, but without an alternative diplomatic framework Iran could refocus and even expand upon its nuclear ambitions.
On Capitol Hill, reaction was mixed: Republicans supported the operations as necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons; some Democrats called for greater transparency and diplomacy as alternatives to using force against Iran.
“These actions demonstrate that the U.S. will not stand idly by while Iran threatens the region and our allies,” stated Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), an outspoken advocate against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, long-term measures must also be devised in order to permanently put an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes; European Union officials confirmed that indirect talks between Washington and Tehran may take place as soon as late July in Vienna or Doha, according to European officials.
U.S. officials are portraying these strikes as short-term successes aimed at buying time, increasing costs for Tehran, and reinforcing Washington’s commitment to stopping nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.