Francois Bayrou finds himself increasingly exposed after he announced an important vote of confidence scheduled for September 8 in parliament, in response to his proposed EUR44 billion austerity package that seeks to reduce France’s budget deficit from 5.8% of GDP currently to around 4.6% by 2026. These plans were widely criticized, including by The Guardian, Financial Times, and Times newspapers (The Times being especially critical).
There is opposition on both the left and right sides.
The PM’s plan has met fierce resistance from an unlikely coalition of political camps. Parties including National Rally (RN), radical left France Unbowed (LFI), Greens, Communists, and even Socialist Party–have publicly pledged not to vote with him and make success more unlikely for any confidence vote to pass. As Reddit +15 reports (The Guardian +15 also mentioned this point).
Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party made his position clear when speaking to Le Monde: Bayrou’s support would have been inconceivable for his party. According to Wikipedia (source).
High Economic and Political Stakes at Play
Bayrou’s budget includes deeply unpopular measures, including scrapping two of France’s 11 public holidays and freezing welfare increases; such measures have caused public outrage and fear of widespread unrest. Its Reuters +3
Financial Times AND The Times.
Financial markets have already responded negatively to the unfolding instability. On August 26th, the CAC 40 index fell by over 2% as key banks such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale experienced losses of 6% or more each. [Reuters +3].
French 10-year government bond yields rose to 3.53%, widening their spread with German bonds to its highest point since April, according to Reuters data.
Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned of imminent economic risks, suggesting that France faces the “real possibility” of intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), something not seen since modern history. (Wikipedia +10 and Reuters both)
What Are My Options If Government Collapses?
Should Bayrou be defeated at his confidence vote, France could enter an uncertain period. President Emmanuel Macron may choose one or more paths of action;
Appointing a Prime Minister to lead a caretaker or revised government is also critical.
Calls have been made for new legislative elections, though Macron had previously refrained from holding snap polls, according to YouTube, The Guardian, Times and Reuters reports.
Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin recently underscored that all options–including snap elections–remain on the table, emphasizing how fragile governance currently remains. Financial Times* +15 | Reuters (2019).
Bayrou has indicated his intention to fight on, hoping either to persuade wavering MPs or outwit his adversaries. A confidence vote may enable him to control the political narrative or force clearer positions from adversaries. Reddit, The Times and Financial Times provide details.
The Broader Context: An Expanding Political Crisis
This crisis follows a year of unprecedented instability in France. Bayrou replaced Michel Barnier after only three months as president due to a successful no-confidence vote, leading to even further instability across government. According to Wikipedia +2Reuters
Macron’s centrist coalition has found it increasingly challenging to pass policy through a National Assembly beset with fractured parliamentarians, making its passage difficult and Bayrou’s current predicament as she desperately attempts to secure support reflects the larger difficulty associated with ruling without an obvious majority. Within that context, its outlook remains dim for Macron’s centrist coalition’s attempts at reform. wikipedia for outlook
As France embarks upon what promises to be an uncertain autumn, the outcome of its confidence vote could have far-reaching ramifications:
An upset would lead to political chaos, market instability and potential social unrest similar to 2018 gilets jaunes protests. Reuters + 4
The Guardian +4 Each time someone casts their vote it could spark social instability similar to 2018’s Gilets jaunes protests (The Guardian and Times respectively).
+4 Even a narrow victory would offer Bayrou and Macron respite from electoral woes, providing them with time to press forward with reforms while strengthening political coalitions.
One thing is certain: France’s ability to remain stable depends not on its own strength but rather on that of its opponents.