At a high-profile summit held in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time since 2019. At that meeting, they declared what has been described as a trade truce — though analysts claim its outcome appears more favorable for China than previously anticipated. These events took place within a month of each other and came just four weeks before Xi’s impending presidential inauguration as president on January 20, 2025.
On paper, the agreement includes several immediate measures: the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 57 percent to 47 percent; in turn, China has agreed to resume large-scale soybean purchases from America and ease export controls for rare earths for at least one year (Reuters +2 and AP News both +2).
Donald Trump described their meeting as “12 out of 10”, and expressed confidence that an extensive agreement would follow.

Underneath the headlines, however, the structural balance of power seems to favour China. Here are several reasons Xi is perceived as having emerged victorious from their encounter:

1. China entered from a strong position.
   Whereas President Donald Trump introduced aggressive tariffs and export controls, China used this opportunity to strengthen its economy, diversify trading partners and develop alternative supply chains – an observation borne out by analysts observing at this summit where analysts observed China is now “closer than ever before to becoming an equal competitor to America on the world stage”. – Al Jazeera + 1.
   By contrast, the U.S. appears to have agreed to a reduction of tariffs in exchange for promises that may be harder to implement.
2. Leveraging rare-earths and other supply-chain tools.
   China holds a dominant position in rare-earth mineral production – which are essential components for electronics, defense and renewable energy technologies – giving Beijing leverage when setting export restrictions or curbs in future agreements. Through this agreement, Beijing agreed to temporarily suspend fresh export curbs, yet retains the power to reinstate them later if needed – giving Beijing another strategic tool at their disposal. By contrast, Reuters notes that Brazil would benefit most from any easing in export restrictions by Beijing using rare-earth export curbs in this deal – giving Beijing another leverage point over Washington as Beijing retains power to restore export curbs later if required giving Beijing another strategic leverage point to use against China in future negotiations
   U.S. companies also offered tariff relief – something with direct costs for American producers – as a condition for Chinese promises.
3. Agricultural Imports Fail to Adjust Structural Imbalance. China’s pledge to purchase U.S. soybeans offers relief to American farmers, yet structurally the trade imbalance remains. China gains both reputational advantage and bargaining leverage while U.S. businesses get back to business-as-usual with little if any transformation in relations; China even led this discussion without being pressured; this shifts optics further towards China than expected (The Guardian +1).
4. This agreement gives China breathing space, while U.S. commitments may prove fleeting.
   By agreeing to a one-year truce, China gains time to adjust to U.S. tactics while the United States may lack the means or capacity to monitor or enforce Chinese promises. Market reaction suggests this might only be temporary resolution rather than lasting peace between both nations
   However, it’s not all one-sided; the U.S. still holds strong technological and institutional advantages that may rebalance in future rounds of negotiation. But for now, China clearly achieved its desired goal: an diplomatic win, some reduction in U.S. pressure relief, and an enhanced global standing.

Conclusion Following the Trump-Xi meeting, it appears that Chinese leader Xi Jinping and China have gained the upper hand. They secured concessions from the U.S. while upholding key strategic options and projecting strength. Meanwhile, America traded tariff relief for promises whose fulfillment may prove harder to realise or enforce; without strong and sustained follow-through this negotiation may only become remembered as another instance where China used diplomacy to alter balance redrawing. For observers of international trade and power dynamics alike this message speaks loud and clear: China didn’t just negotiate but emerged triumphant!