In a high-stakes diplomatic moment, Donald Trump once again asserted that India has committed to significantly reducing its oil imports from Russia—yet Indian officials dispute the claim, setting the scene for heightened trade and geopolitical tension.

Speaking on 22 October 2025 during a Diwali-celebration event at the White House, Trump told reporters that he had spoken with Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, and was told that India “isn’t going to buy much oil from Russia … they’ve cut it way back and are continuing to cut it way back.”
National Herald
+2
India Today
+2
This marks the fourth iteration of the claim in just one week.
Hindustan Times
+1

Yet, India’s response has been cautious and contradictory. A spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs said it was unaware of any such recent call between Modi and Trump, asserting that India’s energy-import policies are “guided entirely by the objective” of safeguarding the interests of Indian consumers.
Politico
Meanwhile the Indian government continues to import Russian crude oil—indeed, India remains one of Russia’s biggest oil customers.
The Guardian
+1

The U.S. Motivation and Indian Push-Back

The U.S. has framed Indian imports of Russian oil as helping fund Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Trump’s repeated declarations appear designed to show he is exerting pressure on India to stop bolstering Russia’s economy—while also underpinning his broader trade strategy. Earlier in the year, Trump imposed massive tariffs on Indian imports to penalize India’s continuing purchases from Russia.
Reuters
+1

From India’s perspective, the matter is framed differently. New Delhi emphasizes its strategic autonomy: it argues its energy policy must prioritise affordable supply for its growing economy, rather than bow to external pressure. The MEA spokesperson’s comment about consumer interests reflects this stance.
Politico
+1
The Indian opposition, meanwhile, seized on the discrepancy: “What Modi conceals, Trump reveals,” quipped Jairam Ramesh of the opposition Congress party as he criticized the government’s handling of the matter.
Moneycontrol
+1

The Facts on the Ground

While Trump insists India is reducing its Russian oil purchases, tracking data suggests otherwise. Indian refiners reportedly placed orders for November and December shipments of Russian crude, undermining the claim of an immediate cut-off.
Reuters
+1
Reuters reported that India’s Russian crude imports were expected to rise in October.
Reuters
This mismatch between rhetoric and data has raised questions about whether there is a real policy shift, or just diplomatic posturing.

Why It Matters

The dispute matters for several reasons:

Geopolitical leverage: By publicly declaring that India will cut Russian oil imports, Trump is seeking to exert pressure on Russia via its energy customers. He is effectively turning energy trade into a tool of diplomacy and sanctioning.

Trade relations at risk: The U.S. has already slapped enormous tariffs — up to 50% — on Indian goods in connection with the Russian-oil issue. Unless clarified, this may strain the broader U.S.–India trade and strategic partnership.
Wikipedia
+1

Energy security concerns: For India, reducing Russian imports immediately is not a trivial step. Russia currently provides a significant share of India’s crude, often at discounted rates. Abrupt changes could raise domestic fuel costs or supply risks, which explains Delhi’s caution.

Diplomatic optics vs reality: The gap between Trump’s claims and Indian officials’ denials highlights the difficulty of interpreting public diplomatic statements. Whether a real policy shift is underway remains ambiguous.

What’s Next

Observers will watch Indian import data closely in the coming months to check whether volumes from Russia decline. Meanwhile the U.S. may follow up with either incentives for India to diversify its supply away from Russia, or further trade penalties if it deems the claims unfulfilled. On the Indian side, Delhi will likely continue balancing its long-term strategic ties with Russia, its energy security priorities, and its increasingly complex relationship with the U.S.

In short, Trump’s repeated claim that India will cut Russian oil imports may reflect a broader U.S. strategy—but the facts on the ground suggest caution. This episode underscores how energy trade, diplomacy and strategic posturing are increasingly entwined in a world shaped by the war in Ukraine. Whether India follows through remains to be seen—and the global market will be watching.